We've spent some time recently digging into our global crude inventory data and have found interesting correlations with a range of tradeable instruments.

In a previous whitepaper, we focused on ICE Brent futures, NYMEX WTI, single-name equities (i.e. ExxonMobil) exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes.

China has imported record amounts of crude oil so far in 2019. Can this frenzied pace continue into the second half of the year?

To answer this question, it helps to know the reason behind the surge.

Were the extra barrels needed to satisfy unusually strong refinery demand? A desire to stockpile supply for later consumption? Or perhaps add more cushion to strategic reserves?

The fire that engulfed a Philadelphia refinery on June 21 caused such extensive damage the owner decided to permanently close the financially-struggling facility.

It isn’t unusual for refineries to experience natural & man-made disasters. When these events strike, people are eager for information on the extent of destruction which can sometimes be difficult to obtain.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, made a fortune as the head of an industrial conglomerate selling things like cement, sugar and pasta.

But it’s the energy business where his attention now lies and the eponymous refinery that will turn Dangote into a household name in oil circles.

When complete, the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria will have a daily capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude, making it one of the world’s largest refineries.

Drive Iranian crude oil exports to zero. Guarantee safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

Those are two goals the White House says it stands by. But can both be accomplished at the same time?

The shift in US policy towards Iran under President Trump has always run the risk of blowback as Washington tightens the screws on Tehran economically and militarily.

It’s that time of year when an upcoming OPEC meeting becomes the central focus of the oil market.

Will OPEC and its coalition partners, led by Russia, decide to extend an agreement to suppress production into the second half of this year?

The meeting, originally scheduled to begin June 25, might be pushed back to early July, at the request of Russia.

The jawboning has already begun.

It’s not typical for European crude inventories to fall in May, but this year has been different.

The Druzhba Pipeline, which can pump 1 million barrels per day, was closed after the discovery of contaminated crude mid-April. This removed a major source of supply from Russia to Europe.

Crude inventories have been rising in Alberta and Kharg Island for very different reasons.

In Canada, the main oil-producing province is struggling to find the right balance between output, pipeline capacity and crude-by-rail loadings.

Once again, the balance has tilted toward oversupply, causing storage tanks in Hardisty and Edmonton to fill up.

In Iran, tougher US sanctions have caused exports to drop at a faster rate than production.

China’s oil-buying prowess returned in a major way last month when crude imports set an all-time high.

But what’s behind the surge? Strong refinery demand? Or opportunistic buying of Iranian crude?

It was a busy week for us traveling to Houston where we hosted an Ursa Insights event for clients and friends, shared the stage with our partner Planet Labs, and then returned to New York City for the Eagle Alpha buy-side conference.

A list of the most pertinent questions facing the oil market would look something like this:

Will the ending of US waivers for buyers of Iranian crude drive the country’s exports to zero? Are there other producers who might increase output to replace lost supply?