some forecasters predicting the price of oil could hit $200 a barrel.

On the other hand, there is hope that production increases elsewhere (e.g., US, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran) could offset Russian declines. Or, perhaps, that won’t even be necessary if Russia can still find international buyers willing to buy its oil.

The talk in the oil market the last few months has centered on two main stories: concerns over global economic growth and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.

The first story suggests less oil demand (bearish), while the second story implies less oil supply (bullish). Taken together, this narrative has kept oil prices in a tight range.

In early July, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said that output cuts by OPEC and other major producers needed to be kept in place to lower crude inventories.

That wasn’t the first time al-Falih has mentioned crude inventories as the preferred metric for determining OPEC production policy.

What surprised many people was the time period he selected.